CO2 emissions are a primary driver in climate change
A paper in Science published two weeks ago has suggested that climate sensitivity to carbon dioxide emissions is currently overestimated. The one line summary: 'the results imply a lower probability of imminent extreme climatic change than previously thought'. For more exact information read on...
Previous estimates suggest 3K change as the best estimate for doubling CO2 emissions, with 2 - 4.5K as the 66% probability range. The study combined extensive sea and land surface temperatures from the Last Glacial Maximum with climate model simulations; their results estimate a lower median of 2.3 K change in temperature, and reduced the uncertainty range to 1.7 - 2.6K (66% probability).
The uncertainty analysis is still incomplete and work will be done over the coming months to better consider things such as uncertainties in radiative forcings due to ice sheet extent, or different vegetation distributions. From their current estimates however, they seem certain that any climate sensitivities larger than 6 K seem implausible.
At the end of the day, a 2K rise in temperature will still have massive impacts on the natural and built environment, and will contribute to the intensification of the hydrological cycle, making extreme weather events more likely. It is however a gentle reminder that all future climate change scenarios and estimates are estimates and nothing more than that. With time I am certain that these uncertainties will be narrowed down even further. The authors stress that the results do not mean that the threat from human-induced climate change should be treated any less seriously. But seeing as there is very little being done about mitigating CO2 emissions, it means that we have a bit more time than previously thought.
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